Author: Rocky Hoffman

How do Interest Rates Affect Your Investments

Posted on by Rocky Hoffman
Interest rates are an important financial lever for world economies. They affect the cost of borrowing and the return on savings, and it makes them an integral part of the return on many investments. It can also affect the value of the currency, which has a further trickle-down effect on other investments. So, when rates are low they can influence more business investment because it is cheaper to borrow. When rates are high or rising, economic activity slows. As a result, interest rate movements are also a useful tool to control inflation. The cash rate or headline rate you hear mentioned regularly in the media is the interest rate on unsecured overnight loans between banks. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sets the rate and meets every month, except January, to consider whether it should move up, down or stay the same. This rate then usually flows through to market interest rates causing, for example, mortgage rates to rise or fall.

Rising steadily

For the past few years, interest rates have been close to zero or even in negative territory in some countries, but that all started to change in the last year or so. Australia lagged other world economies when it came to increasing rates but since the rises began here last year, the RBA has introduced hikes on a fairly regular basis. Indeed, the base rate has risen 3.5 per cent since June last year.

Australian Cash Rate Target

Source: RBA The key reason for the rises is the need to dampen inflation. The RBA has long aimed to keep inflation between the 2 and 3 per cent mark. Clearly, that benchmark has been sharply breached and now the consumer price index is well over the 7 per cent a year mark. While interest rates are the key monetary policy weapon to control inflation and dampen the economy, there can be a risk of taking it too far and causing a recession. Economic growth is forecast to slow to around 1.5 per cent this year as high inflation, low consumer confidence and rising rates take their toll.i

Winners and losers

There are two sides to rising interest rates. It hurts if you are a borrower, and it is generally welcomed if you are a saver. But not all consequences of an interest rate rise are equal for investors and sometimes the extent of its impact may be more of a reflection of your approach to investment risk. If you are a conservative investor with cash making up a significant proportion of your portfolio, then rate rises may be welcome. On the other hand, if your portfolio is focussed on growth with most investments in say, shares and property, higher rates may start to erode the total value of your holdings. Clearly this underlines the argument for diversity across your investments and an understanding of your goals in the short, medium, and long-term.

Shares take a hit

Higher interest rates tend to have a negative impact on sharemarkets. While it may take time for the effect of higher rates to filter through to the economy, the sharemarket often reacts instantly as investors downgrade their outlook for future company growth. In addition, shares are viewed as a higher risk investment than more conservative fixed interest options. So, if low risk fixed interest investments are delivering better returns, investors may switch to bonds. But that does not mean stock prices fall across the board. Traditionally, value stocks such as banks, insurance companies and resources have performed better than growth stocks in this environment.ii Also investors prefer stocks earning money today rather than those with a promise of future earnings. But there are a lot of jitters in the sharemarket particularly in the wake of the failure of a number of mid-tier US banks. As a result, the traditional better performers are also struggling.

Fixed interest options

Fixed interest investments include government and semi-government bonds and corporate bonds. If you are invested in long-term bonds, then the outlook is not so rosy because the recent interest rates increases mean your current investments have lost value. At the moment, fixed interest is experiencing an inverted yield curve which means long term rates are lower than short term. Such a situation reflects investor uncertainty about potential economic growth and can be a key predictor of recession and deflation. Of course, this is not the only measure to determine the possibility of a recession and many commentators in Australia believe we may avoid this scenario.iii

What about housing?

House prices have fallen from their peak in 2022, which is not surprising given the slackening demand as a result of higher mortgage rates. Australian Bureau of Statistics data showed an annual 35 per cent drop in new investment loans earlier this year.iv The consequent reduction in available rental properties has put upward pressure on rents which is good news if you have no loan, a small loan or a fixed interest loan on the property. The changing times in Australia’s economic fortunes can lead to concern about whether you have the right investment mix. If you are unsure about your portfolio, then give us a call to discuss. i https://www2.deloitte.com/au/en/pages/media-releases/articles/business-outlook.html ii https://www.ig.com/au/trading-strategies/what-are-the-effects-of-interest-rates-on-the-stock-market-220705 iii https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2023/02/inverted-yield-curve-predicts-australian-recession/e. iv https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/finance/lending-indicators/latest-release

Retirement Mistakes and How to Avoid Them

Posted on by Rocky Hoffman
Retirement is a phase of life most of us look forward to. It’s a chance to pursue other interests, travel and maybe do some part-time work or volunteering. Thanks to more than 30 years of compulsory superannuation, we are also retiring with more savings than previous generations and have higher expectations of the lifestyle we wish to enjoy. But that also brings its challenges. According to the government’s Retirement Income Review, the average age of retirement in Australia is around the ages of 62 to 65.i At the same time, today’s 65-year-old men and women can expect to live to 85 and 88 respectively, on average, and many will live well into their 90s. To make the most of your retirement years, it’s important to have confidence that your savings will last the distance. The best way to achieve that is to have a plan that will help you avoid some common and preventable retirement mistakes.

Mistakes people make

While it’s impossible to predict what financial challenges lie ahead, these eight common retirement mistakes remain the same:

1. Not knowing your living costs

When you are receiving a regular income, you may be tempted to focus less on keeping a track of your living costs. When the regular income stops at retirement, you can be unaware of whether your investment income and/or pension payments will support your lifestyle costs. Knowing what your living costs are before you retire can help manage expectations accordingly.

2. Not looking at your super until just before retiring

What if your super was invested in conservative assets throughout your working life? It could mean that your super would not have grown to the level needed to fund your retirement. What if your super’s insurance premiums and fees consumed the returns? It is vital to review your super account as early and as regularly as possible to ensure it is appropriate for each stage of your life.

3. Underestimating the impact of inflation

Australia’s rate of inflation hovered around 1 per cent to 3 per cent per year between June 2012 and early 2020. Since the onset of the global pandemic in March 2020, inflation has jumped to more than 7 per cent.ii This along with a disruption to the global supply chain and the Russia-Ukraine war has lifted the cost of living to levels that require you to reassess your retirement planning.

4. Not understanding your government entitlements

If you’re age 66 or older, you may be eligible for a full- or part-Age Pension. However, even if your level of wealth puts you above the pension limits, you may still be eligible for other entitlements. These can include the Seniors Card, Pensioner Concession Card, income tax offsets or pensioner stamp duty exemption/concession.

5. Letting the noise affect your investment decisions

Negative news grabs headlines, such as talk of billions being wiped off share markets, but you rarely read about the billions made during the rebound. There is no denying that the financial markets face volatility during periods of uncertainty. However, as history has shown, over the long run the market trends upwards. All this noise makes it difficult to stick your long-term strategy, when in fact such events can present opportunities in the markets too.

6. Trying to time the financial markets

“We haven’t the faintest idea what the stock market is gonna do when it opens on Monday — we never have,” said legendary share investor Warren Buffett. Say you invested $10,000 in the ASX 200 index by trying to time the market and you missed the 40 best days between October 2003 to October 2022, your investment would be worth $9,064, whereas if you remained fully invested it would be worth $46,099.iii Trying to time the markets is never a good idea, especially with your retirement savings.

7. Being asset rich and cash poor

You may have built up a strong balance sheet of assets, but in retirement it is income you require. For many Australians, their family home could be their biggest asset and its value is sometimes unlocked by downsizing into a smaller home, but many Australians remain living in a family home that has surged in value while they struggle to find enough income to live on. Are your assets generating enough income to support your lifestyle? This income can include rent from an investment property, share dividends or managed fund distributions. If the income is insufficient, you may have to sell some of your assets to provide that liquidity or tap into the equity in your home by taking out a reverse mortgage-style loan.

8. Not consulting professionals

Financial advisers, accountants and other financial professionals can help set you on the right path by navigating the complexities of superannuation, investments, constant rule changes and other factors that affect your retirement. A good retirement plan, implemented correctly, can set you up for life.

Start Planning

Whether it’s due to lack of time or awareness, too many people tend to make these same mistakes when entering retirement which can lead to unwanted financial surprises. A phase of life you have looked forward to for so long deserves careful planning. So please get in touch if you would like to review your retirement income needs. i Retirement Income Review Final Report, July 2020 page 63 Retirement Income Review Final Report (treasury.gov.au) ii https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/consumer-price-index-australia/latest-release iii From 31 Oct 2003 to 04 Oct 2022, Fidelity Australia Timing the market | Fidelity Australia

Sustainable Investing on The Rise

Posted on by Rocky Hoffman

 Sustainable investing is not new, but in recent years it’s moved from the green fringes into the mainstream. From climate change to animal rights and gender diversity, more people are interested in aligning their money with their values. Last year alone, Australia’s sustainable investment market increased 20 per cent to a record $1.5 trillion. According to its 2022 benchmark report, the Responsible Investment Association Australasia (RIAA) found sustainable investments now represent 43 per cent of total professionally-managed funds. In addition to traditional shares and fixed interest you can buy sustainable investments in a wide range of assets, including property, alternatives such as forestry and farmland, infrastructure, private equity and cash. These days, most big super funds offer a sustainable investment option and some even offer this as their default option. You can also buy sustainable managed funds, including a growing list of exchange-traded funds (ETFs). So what are sustainable investments and how can you tell?

Focus on people and planet

Sustainable investing is also known as ethical, responsible and ESG (environmental, social, governance) investing. But whatever the name, the focus is on people, society and/or the environment instead of an exclusive focus on financial returns. Sustainable investments are selected using a variety of screening methods, including:
    • Positive screening selects the best investments in their class
    • Negative screening excludes harmful sectors, companies or activities such as arms, gambling, animal testing, tobacco and fossil fuels
    • Norms-based investing screens for minimum standards of relevant business practices
  • Impact investing has the explicit intention of generating positive social or environment impacts.i
Increasingly, the term ESG investing is used when a fund or company commits to sustainable investing in these three areas:
    • Environmental, including air and water pollution, biodiversity and climate change
    • Social, including child labour and labour standards, ethical product sourcing, gambling and human rights
  • Governance, including board diversity, corruption, business ethics, corporate culture and whistle-blower schemes.
While climate change is a strong theme these days, the RIAA report found gender diversity and women’s empowerment are gaining popularity. Yet despite the focus on making the world a better place, sustainable investing is not all warm and fuzzy. Performance still matters.

Performance gains

In the early days, sustainable investing often came at the expense of returns but that is no longer necessarily the case. The RIAA report compared the performance of what it terms responsible investment funds and mainstream investments funds (on average and net of fees) over the past 10 years to December 2021. As the table shows, responsible multi-sector growth funds consistently outperformed mainstream funds and their benchmark over 1, 3, 5 and 10 years. Responsible Australian share funds generally outperformed or were on par with mainstream funds. Only responsible international share funds disappointed, underperforming mainstream funds across all timeframes.

Performance of responsible investment funds vs mainstream funds and benchmarks

Fund categories/benchmark 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year 10 Year
Responsible investment multi-sector growth funds 16.1% 14.0% 10.6% 10.9%
Morningstar category: Australia multi-sector growth 14.1% 10.9% 7.9% 8.8%
Responsible investment international share funds 18.1% 17.3% 12.3% 11.3%
Morningstar category: Australia Equity World Large Blend 24.6% 18.1% 13.4% 15.1%
Responsible investment domestic shares (Aus/NZ) 16.6% 14.8% 11.8% 11.2%
Morningstar category: Equity Australia Large Blend 18.3% 13.7% 9.3% 10.1%
S&P/ASX 300 Total Return 17.5% 14.0% 9.9% 10.8%

Source: RIAA Responsible Investment Benchmark Report Australia 2022

Watch out for greenwashing

Not surprisingly, increased investor demand for sustainable investments has led to a rapid increase in the number of products available. The rush to cash in on the trend has sometimes led to what is known as ‘’greenwashing”. The Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) describes greenwashing as the practice of misrepresenting the extent to which a financial product or investment strategy is environmentally friendly, sustainable or ethical. ASIC warns investors to look beneath the green label at the fine print. For example, a fund might describe itself as ‘’no gambling” but the product terms say it may invest in companies that earn less than 30 per cent of revenue from gambling. It’s also important not to rely on vague language such as “considers”, “integrates” or “takes into account” sustainability-related factors, but to look for a clear explanation of how the product will achieve its aims.

Australian companies lifting their game

It’s not just super funds and managed funds taking sustainable investing more seriously. For investors who like to invest directly in shares, Australian listed companies are also adapting to changing investor preferences and regulatory environment. In a recent analysis of ESG reporting by Australia’s top 200 listed companies, PwC found the bar has been raised following the formation of the International Sustainability Standards Board (ISSB) in 2021, but there is still work to be done. PwC found a 13 per cent increase in companies declaring a commitment to net zero emissions. However, only 55 per cent of those disclosed a transition plan or activities that will enable them to reach net zero. There was also a 10 per cent increase in companies disclosing climate risks and opportunities, and a 30 per cent increase to 77 per cent of companies now disclosing a gender diversity policy. For investors seeking sustainability along with financial returns from their investments, momentum and choice is growing. So please get in touch if you would like to discuss your investment options.

i https://responsibleinvestment.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Responsible-Investment-Benchmark-Report-Australia-2022-1.pdf

Mortgage vs Super

Posted on by Rocky Hoffman

With interest rates on the rise and investment returns increasingly volatile, Australians with cash to spare may be wondering how to make the most of it. If you have a mortgage, should you make extra repayments or would you be better off in the long run boosting your super? The answer is, it depends. Your personal circumstances, interest rates, tax and the investment outlook all need to be taken into consideration.

What to consider

Some of the things you need to weigh up before committing your hard-earned cash include:

Your age and years to retirement

The closer you are to retirement and the smaller your mortgage, the more sense it makes to prioritise super. Younger people with a big mortgage, dependent children, and decades until they can access their super have more incentive to pay down housing debt, perhaps building up investments outside super they can access if necessary.

Your mortgage interest rate

This will depend on whether you have a fixed or variable rate, but both are on the rise. As a guide, the average variable mortgage interest rate is currently around 4.5 per cent so any money directed to your mortgage earns an effective return of 4.5 per cent. i When interest rates were at historic lows, you could earn better returns from super and other investments; but with interest rates rising, the pendulum is swinging back towards repaying the mortgage. The earlier in the term of your loan you make extra repayments, the bigger the savings over the life of the loan. The question then is the amount you can save on your mortgage compared to your potential earnings if you invest in super.

Super fund returns

In the 10 years to 30 June 2022, super funds returned 8.1 per cent a year on average but fell 3.3 per cent in the final 12 months.ii In the short-term, financial markets can be volatile but the longer your investment horizon the more time there is to ride out market fluctuations. As your money is locked away until you retire, the combination of time, compound interest and concessional tax rates make super an attractive investment for retirement savings.

Tax

Super is a concessionally taxed retirement savings vehicle, with tax on investment earnings of 15 per cent compared with tax at your marginal rate on investments outside super. Contributions are taxed at 15 per cent going in, but this is likely to be less than your marginal tax rate if you salary sacrifice into super from your pre-tax income. You may even be able to claim a tax deduction for personal contributions you make up to your annual cap. Once you turn 60 and retire, income from super is generally tax free. By comparison, mortgage interest payments are not tax-deductible.

Personal sense of security

For many people there is an enormous sense of relief and security that comes with having a home fully paid for and being debt-free heading into retirement. As mortgage interest payments are not tax deductible for the family home (as opposed to investment properties), younger borrowers are often encouraged to pay off their mortgage as quickly as possible. But for those close to retirement, it may make sense to put extra savings into super and use their super to repay any outstanding mortgage debt after they retire. These days, more people are entering retirement with mortgage debt. So whatever your age, your decision will also depend on the size of your outstanding home loan and your super balance. If your mortgage is a major burden, or you have other outstanding debts, then debt repayment is likely a priority.

Older couple nearing retirement

Tony and Elena, both 60, would like to retire in the next few years. Together they earn $180,000 a year, excluding super, but they still have $100,000 remaining on their mortgage. Tony has a super balance of $600,000 and Elena has $200,000. They want to be debt free by the time they retire but they are also worried they won’t have enough super to afford the lifestyle they look forward to in retirement. If they do nothing, at a mortgage interest rate of 4.5 per cent it will take five years to repay their mortgage with monthly mortgage payments of $1,864. At age 65, their combined super balance will be a projected $1,019,395. Jolted into action, they decide they can afford to put an extra $1,000 a month into their mortgage or super.
    • If they increase their mortgage payments by $1,000 a month, the loan will be repaid in three years and two months. But their super will only be a projected $931,665 by then, so they may need to work a little longer to fund a comfortable retirement. From age 63, they might consider salary sacrificing into super with money freed up from early repayment of their mortgage.
  • If they salary sacrifice $1,000 a month to super from age 60, their combined super balance will grow to a projected $1,082,225 by the time they are 65 and their home is fully paid for.
These are complex decisions, but whichever option they choose they will probably need to consider working until at least age 65 to be debt free and build their super.

All calculations based on the MoneySmart mortgage and retirement planner calculators.

All things considered

As you can see, working out how to get the most out of your savings is rarely simple and the calculations will be different for everyone. The best course of action will ultimately depend on your personal and financial goals. Buying a home and saving for retirement are both long-term financial commitments that require regular review. If you would like to discuss your overall investment strategy, give us a call.

i https://www.finder.com.au/the-average-home-loan-interest-rate ii https://www.chantwest.com.au/resources/super-members-spared-the-worst-in-a-rough-year-for-markets/

How is my Insurance Taxed

Posted on by Rocky Hoffman

With the cost of living on the rise, it’s more important than ever to have a financial safety net that protects you and your family in case the unexpected happens.

Most Australian employees have some form of life insurance, often through their superannuation fund, but many of us tend to ‘set and forget’.

To make the most of your life insurance policy, it’s useful to understand how it works, and how premiums and payments are affected by tax.

Various types of life insurance

Life insurance is an umbrella term for a range of policies that cover different situations.

They include:

  • Life cover, which pays out after your death to someone you have nominated.
  • Income protection covers you if you’re unable to work because of illness or injury.
  • Total and permanent disability (TPD) insurance provides medical and living costs if you become permanently disabled.
  • Accidental death and injury cover pays a lump sum if you die or are injured.
  • Critical illness or trauma insurance pays a lump sum to cover medical expenses for major medical conditions.
  • Business expenses insurance covers ongoing fixed business costs if you’re a business owner suffering serious illness or injury.

Tax benefits and deductions

The premiums for most types of life insurance are not tax deductible, but there are exceptions. Premiums for income protection held outside of super are tax-deductible and inside super for the self-employed. Business expenses insurance premiums are also tax deductible.

The tax treatment of benefits paid out by policies also varies according to the type of policy and your situation, so it’s important to talk to us. Generally, life cover paid to someone who’s financially dependent on you (typically a spouse and children under 18 years) is not taxed. But if the beneficiary isn’t your financial dependent, they can expect to pay tax.

Income protection insurance payments must be declared on your tax return and will be taxed at your marginal rate, just like your usual salary. Business expense insurance payouts also taxable.

Lump sum payments made through other policies are not taxable.

Inside super or outside?

Some of these insurances, particularly life cover, income protection and TPD, can be purchased through your super fund. Most people have a basic level of cover held this way, but you should check to see if it’s adequate for your needs.

If you are aged under 25, have a super balance of $6,000 or less, or your account is inactive, you will need to “opt in” if you want insurance cover.

If you have a self-managed super fund (SMSF), you’re required to consider whether to hold life insurance for each of the fund’s members, although there’s no obligation to buy.

Super pros and cons

You’ll need to do the sums for your circumstances, which is where an adviser can assist, but there may be an advantage to using your super to pay the premiums. The main reason is cost.

Sometimes, the buying power of larger super funds allows them to negotiate competitive pricing for insurance products.i It’s not always the case, so you’ll need to shop around to make sure you’re getting the best deal.

Another potential financial benefit in paying the monthly premiums out of your super account, is that you’re using funds taxed at 15 per cent. Whereas, if you pay the premium from your own bank account, you’d be using funds already taxed at your marginal tax rate, which may be higher. That means your pre-tax dollars are working harder and you’ve still got your cash in the bank.

The main drawback to paying insurance premiums through super is that you’ll be reducing your super balance, which means less for retirement. However, you could choose to boost your balance using salary sacrifice or personal contributions.

Your safety net checklist

  • Decide on who and what needs to be financially protected if something should happen to you.
  • Weigh up the best type of life insurance to meet your needs and shop around.
  • Be clear about any tax implications of an insurance payout
  • Make sure the policy benefit is adequate and check it annually.
 

Deciding on the type of life insurance you need can be tricky, so give us a call to discuss your insurance needs.

i Insurance through super – Moneysmart.gov.au

A super window of opportunity

Posted on by Rocky Hoffman

New rules coming into force on July 1 will create opportunities for older Australians to boost their retirement savings and younger Australians to build a home deposit, all within the tax-efficient superannuation system. Using the existing First Home Super Saver Scheme, people can now release up to $50,000 from their super account for a first home deposit, up from $30,000 previously. Another change that will help low-income earners and people who work in the gig economy is the scrapping of the Super Guarantee (SG) threshold. Previously, employees only began receiving compulsory SG payments from their employer once they earned $450 a month. But the biggest potential benefits from the recent changes will flow to Australians aged 55 and older. Here’s a rundown of the key changes and potential strategies.

Work test changes

From July 1, anyone under the age of 75 can make and receive personal or salary sacrifice super contributions without having to satisfy a work test. Annual contribution limits still apply and personal contributions for which you claim a tax deduction are still not allowed. Previously, people aged 67 to 74 were required to work for at least 40 hours in a consecutive 30-day period in a financial year or be eligible for the work test exemption. This means you can potentially top up your super account until you turn 75 (or no later than 28 days after the end of the month you turn 75). It also opens up potential new strategies for making a big last-minute contribution, using the bring-forward rule.

Extension of the bring-forward rule

The bring-forward rule allows eligible people to ‘’bring forward” up to two years’ worth of non-concessional (after tax) super contributions. The current annual non-concessional contributions cap is $110,000, which means you can potentially contribute up to $330,000. When combined with the removal of the work test for people aged 67-75, this opens a 10-year window of opportunity for older Australians to boost their super even as they draw down retirement income. Some potential strategies you might consider are:
    • Transferring wealth you hold outside super – such as shares, investment property or an inheritance – into super to take advantage of the tax-free environment of super in retirement phase
 
    • Withdrawing a lump sum from your super and recontributing it to your spouse’s super, to make the most of your combined super under the existing limits
 
  • Using the bring-forward rule in conjunction with downsizer contributions when you sell your family home.

Downsizer contributions age lowered to 60

From July 1, you can make a downsizer contribution into super from age 60, down from 65 previously. (In the May 2022 election campaign, the previous Morrison government proposed lowering the eligibility age further to 55, a promise matched by Labor. This is yet to be legislated.) The downsizer rules allow eligible individuals to contribute up to $300,000 from the sale of their home into super. Couples can contribute up to this amount each, up to a combined $600,000. You must have owned the home for at least 10 years. Downsizer contributions don’t count towards your concessional or non-concessional caps. And as there is no work test or age limit, downsizer contributions provide a lot of flexibility for older Australians to manage their financial resources in retirement. For instance, you could sell your home and make a downsizer contribution of up to $300,000 combined with bringing forward non-concessional contributions of up to $330,000. This would allow an individual to potentially boost their super by up to $630,000, while couples could contribute up to a combined $1,260,000.

Rules relaxed, not removed

The latest rule changes will make it easier for many Australians to build and manage their retirement savings within the concessional tax environment of super. But those generous tax concessions still have their limits. Currently, there’s a $1.7 million limit on the amount you can transfer into the pension phase of super, called your transfer balance cap. Just to confuse matters, there’s also a cap on the total amount you can have in super (your total super balance) to be eligible for a range of non-concessional contributions. As you can see, it’s complicated. So if you would like to discuss how the new super rules might benefit you, please get in touch.

Combining downsizer and bring-forward contributions

Australians aged between 60 and 74 now have greater flexibility to downsize from a large family home and put more of the sale proceeds into super, using a combination of the new downsizer and bring-forward contribution rules. Take the example of Tony (62) and Lena (60). Tony has a super balance of $450,000 while Lena has a balance of $200,000. They plan to retire within the next 12 months, sell their large family home and buy a townhouse closer to their grandchildren. After doing this, they estimate they will have net sale proceeds of $1 million. Under the new rules from 1 July 2022:
    • They can contribute $600,000 of the sale proceeds into their super accounts as downsizer contributions ($300,000 each)
  • The remaining $400,000 can also be contributed into super using the bring-forward rule, with each of them contributing $200,000.
By using a combination of the downsizer and bring-forward rules, Tony and Lena can contribute the full $1 million into super. Not only will this give their retirement savings a real boost, but they will be able to withdraw the income from their super pension accounts tax-free once they retire.

Source: ATO

The road ahead for shares

Posted on by Rocky Hoffman

Trying to time investment markets is difficult if not impossible at the best of times, let alone now. The war in Ukraine, rising inflation and interest rates and an upcoming federal election have all added to market uncertainty and volatility. At times like these investors may be tempted to retreat to the ‘’safety” of cash, but that can be costly. Not only is it difficult to time your exit, but you are also likely to miss out on any upswing that follows a dip. Take Australian shares. Despite COVID and the recent wall of worries on global markets, Aussie shares soared 64 per cent in the two years from the pandemic low in March 2020 to the end of March 2022.i Who would have thought? So what lies ahead for shares? The recent Federal Budget contained some clues.

The economic outlook

The Budget doesn’t only outline the government’s spending priorities, it provides a snapshot of where Treasury thinks the Australian economy is headed. While forecasts can be wide of the mark, they do influence market behaviour. As you can see in the table below, Australia’s economic growth is expected to peak at 4.25 per cent this financial year, underpinned by strong company profits, employment growth and surging commodity prices. Our economy is growing at a faster rate than the global average of 3.75 per cent, and ahead of the US and Europe, which helps explain why Australian shares have performed so strongly.ii However, growth is expected to taper off to 2.5 per cent by 2023-24, as key commodity prices fall from their current giddy heights by the end of September this year, turning this year’s 11% rise in our terms of trade to a 21 per cent fall in 2022-23.

Table: Australian economy (% change on previous year)

Actual % Forecasts %
2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24
Gross domestic product (GDP) 1.5 4.25 3.5 2.5
Consumer prices index (CPI) 3.8 4.25 3.0 2.75
Wage price index 1.7 2.75 3.25 3.25
Unemployment 5.1 4.0 3.75 3.75
Terms of trade* 10.4 11 -21.25 -8.75

*Key commodity prices assumed to decline from current high levels by end of September quarter 2022 Source: Treasury

Commodity prices have jumped on the back of supply chain disruptions during the pandemic and the war in Ukraine. While much depends on the situation in Ukraine, Treasury estimates that prices for iron ore, oil and coal will all drop sharply later this year. So, what does all this mean for shares?

Share market winners and losers

Rising commodity prices have been a boon for Australia’s resources sector and demand should continue while interest rates remain low and global economies recover from their pandemic lows. Government spending commitments in the recent Budget will also put extra cash in the pockets of households and the market sectors that depend on them. This is good news for companies in the retail sector, from supermarkets to specialty stores selling discretionary items. Elsewhere, building supplies, construction and property development companies should benefit from the pipeline of big infrastructure projects combined with support for first home buyers and a strong property market. Increased Budget spending on defence, and a major investment to improve regional telecommunications, should also flow through to listed companies that supply those sectors as well as the big telcos and internet providers. However, while Budget spending is a market driver in the short to medium term there are other influences on the horizon for investors to be aware of.

Rising inflation and interest rates

With inflation on the rise in Australia and the rest of the world, central banks are beginning to lift interest rates from their historic lows. Australia’s Reserve Bank has recently raised the official cash rate after 11 1/2 years of no increases. Global bond markets are already anticipating higher rates, with yields on Australian and US 10-year government bonds jumping to 2.98 per cent and 2.67 per cent respectively. However, the yield on some US shorter-term bonds temporarily rose above 2.7 per cent recently. Historically, this so-called “inverse yield curve” has indicated recession at worst, or an economic slowdown.iii Rising inflation and interest rates can slow economic growth and put a dampener on shares. At the same time, higher interest rates are a cause for celebration for retirees and anyone who depends on income from fixed interest securities and bank deposits. But it’s not that black and white. While rising interest rates and volatile markets generally constrain returns from shares, some sectors still tend to outperform the market. This includes the banks, because they can charge borrowers more, suppliers and retailers of staples such as food and drink, and healthcare among others.

Putting it all together

In uncertain times when markets are volatile, it’s natural for investors to be a little nervous. But history shows there are investment winners and losers at every point in the economic cycle. At times like these, the best strategy is to have a well-diversified portfolio with a focus on quality. For share investors, this means quality businesses with stable demand for their goods or services and those able to pass on increased costs to customers. If you would like to discuss your overall investment strategy don’t hesitate to get in touch.

i https://www.commsec.com.au/market-news/the-markets/2022/mar-22-budget-sharemarket-winners-and-losers.html ii https://budget.gov.au/2022-23/content/bp1/download/bp1_bs-2.pdf iii https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-bond-yield

Federal Budget 2022 – 23 Analysis

Posted on by Rocky Hoffman

A balancing act

Billed as a Budget for families with a focus on relieving short-term cost of living pressures, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s fourth Budget also has one eye firmly on the federal election in May. At the same time, the government is relying on rising commodity prices and a forecast lift in wages as unemployment heads towards a 50-year low to underpin Australia’s post-pandemic recovery. While budget deficits and government debt will remain high for the foreseeable future, the Treasurer is confident that economic growth will more than cover the cost of servicing our debt.
The big picture
The Australian economy continues to grow faster and stronger than anticipated, but the fog of war in Ukraine is adding uncertainty to the global economic outlook. After growing by 4.2 per cent in the year to December, Australia’s economic growth is expected to slow to 3.4 per cent in 2022-23.i Unemployment, currently at 4 per cent, is expected to fall to 3.75 per cent in the September quarter. The government is banking on a tighter labour market pushing up wages which are forecast to grow at a rate of 3.25 per cent in 2023 and 2024. Wage growth has improved over the past year but at 2.3 per cent, it still lags well behind inflation of 3.5 per cent.ii The Treasurer forecast a budget deficit of $78 billion in 2022-23 (3.4 per cent of GDP), lower than the $88.9 billion estimate as recently as last December, before falling to $43 billion (1.6 per cent of GDP) by the end of the forward estimates in 2025-26. Net debt is tipped to hit an eye-watering $715 billion (31 per cent of GDP) in 2022-23 before peaking at 33 per cent of GDP in June 2026. This is lower than forecast but unthinkable before the pandemic sent a wrecking ball through the global economy.

Rising commodity prices

The big improvement in the deficit has been underpinned by the stronger than expected economic recovery and soaring commodity prices for some of our major exports. Iron ore prices have jumped about 75 per cent since last November on strong demand from China, while wheat prices have soared 68 per cent over the year and almost 5 per cent in March alone after the war in Ukraine cut global supply.iii,iv Offsetting those exports, Australia is a net importer of oil. The price of Brent Crude oil prices have surged 73 per cent over the year, with supply shortages exacerbated by the war in Ukraine.v Australian households are paying over $2 a litre to fill their car with petrol, adding to cost of living pressures and pressure on the government to act. With the rising cost of fuel and other essentials, this is one of the areas targeted by the Budget. The following rundown summarises the measures most likely to impact Australian households.
Cost of living relief
As expected, the Treasurer announced a temporary halving of the fuel excise for the next six months which will save motorists 22c a litre on petrol. The Treasurer estimates a family with two cars who fill up once a week could save about $30 a week, or $700 in total over six months. Less expected was the temporary $420 one-off increase in the low-to-middle-income tax offset (LMITO). It had been speculated that LMITO would be extended for another year, but it is now set to end on June 30 as planned. The extra $420 will boost the offset for people earning less than $126,000 from up to $1,080 previously to $1,500 this year. Couples will receive up to $3,000. The additional offset, which the government says will ease inflationary pressures for 10 million Australians, will be available when people lodge their tax returns from 1 July. The government will also make one-off cash payments of $250 in April to six million people receiving JobSeeker, age and disability support pensions, parenting payment, youth allowance and those with a seniors’ health card.

Temporarily extending the minimum pension drawdown relief

Self-funded retirees haven’t been forgotten. The temporary halving of the minimum income drawdown requirement for superannuation pensions will be further extended, until 30 June 2023. This will allow retirees to minimise the need to sell down assets given ongoing market volatility. It applies to account-based, transition to retirement and term allocated superannuation pensions.
More support for home buyers
A further 50,000 places a year will be made available under various government schemes to help more Australians buy a home. This includes an additional 35,000 places for the First Home Guarantee where the government underwrites loans to first-home buyers with a deposit as low as 5 per cent. And a further 5,000 places for the Family Home Guarantee which helps single parents buy a home with as little as 2 per cent deposit. There is also a new Regional Home Guarantee, which will provide 10,000 guarantees to allow people who have not owned a home for five years to buy a new property outside a major city with a deposit of as little as 5 per cent.
Support for parents
The government is expanding the paid parental leave scheme to give couples more flexibility to choose how they balance work and childcare. Dad and partner pay will be rolled into Paid Parental Leave Pay to create a single scheme that gives the 180,000 new parents who access it each year, increased flexibility to choose how they will share it. In addition, single parents will be able to take up to 20 weeks of leave, the same as couples.
Health and aged care
One of the Budget surprises in the wake of the Aged Care Royal Commission findings, was the absence of spending on additional aged care workers and wages. Instead, $468 million will be spent on the sector with most of that ($340 million) earmarked to provide on-site pharmacy services. The Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) is also set for a $2.4 billion shot in the arm over five years, adding new medicines to the list. PBS safety net thresholds will also be reduced, so patients with high demand for prescription medicines won’t have to get as many scripts. A $547 million mental health and suicide prevention support package includes a $52 million funding boost for Lifeline. And as winter approaches, the government will spend a further $6 billion on its COVID health response.
Jobs, skills development and small business support
As the economy and demand for skilled workers grow, the government is providing more funding for skills development with a focus on small business. It will provide a funding boost of $3.7 billion to states and territories with the potential to provide 800,000 training places. In addition, eligible apprentices and trainees in “priority industries” will be able to access $5,000 in retention payments over two years, while their employers will also receive wage subsidies. Small businesses with annual turnover of less than $50 million will be able to deduct a bonus 20 per cent for the cost of training their employees, so for every $100 they spend, they receive a $120 tax deduction. Similarly, for every $100 these businesses spend to digitalise their businesses, up to an outlay of $100,000, they will receive a $120 tax deduction. This includes things such as portable payment devices, cyber security systems and subscriptions to cloud-based services.
Looking ahead
With an election less than two months away, the government will be hoping it has done enough to quell voter concerns about the rising cost of living, while safeguarding Australia’s ongoing economic recovery. The local economy faces strong headwinds from the war in Ukraine, the cost of widespread flooding along much of the east coast and the ongoing pandemic. Much depends on the hopes for the rise in employment and wages to offset rising inflation, and the timing and extent of interest rate rises by the Reserve Bank. If you have any questions about any of the Budget measures, don’t hesitate to call us.

Information in this article has been sourced from the Budget Speech 2022-23 and Federal Budget support documents.

It is important to note that the policies outlined in this publication are yet to be passed as legislation and therefore may be subject to change.

i https://tradingeconomics.com/australia/gdp-growth-annual ii https://www.abs.gov.au/media-centre/media-releases/annual-wage-growth-increases-23 iii https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/iron-ore iv, v https://tradingeconomics.com/commodities

Get ready for June 30th 2022

Posted on by Rocky Hoffman

It seems like June 30 rolls around quicker every year, so why wait until the last minute to get your personal finances in order? With all the uncertainty and special support measures of the past two years, it’s possible your finances have changed for better, or for worse. So it’s a good idea to ensure you’re on track for the upcoming end-of-financial-year (EOFY). Starting early is essential if you want to make the most of the opportunities on offer when it comes to your super and tax affairs.

New limits for super contributions

A key task for EOFY is maximising your super contributions to boost your retirement savings and take advantage of the available tax benefits. Annual contribution limits for super rose this financial year, so this strategy is even more attractive. From 1 July 2021, most people’s annual concessional contributions cap increased to $27,500 (up from $25,000). This allows you to contribute a bit extra into your super on a before-tax basis, potentially reducing your taxable income. If you have any unused concessional contribution amounts from previous financial years and your super balance is less than $500,000, you may be able to “carry forward” these amounts to further top up. Another strategy is to make a personal contribution for which you claim a tax deduction. These contributions count towards your $27,500 cap and were previously available only to the self-employed. To qualify, you must notify your super fund in writing of your intention to claim and receive acknowledgement.

Non-concessional super strategies

If you have some spare cash, it may also be worth taking advantage of the higher non-concessional (after-tax) contributions cap. From 1 July 2021, the general non concessional cap increased to $110,000 annually (up from $100,000). These contributions can be a great help if you’ve reached your concessional contributions cap, received an inheritance, or have additional personal savings you would like to put into super. If you are aged 67 or older, however, you need to meet the requirements of the work test or work test exemption. For those under age 67 (previously age 65) at any time during 2021-22, you may be able to use a bring-forward arrangement to make a contribution of up to $330,000 (three years x $110,000). To take advantage of the bring-forward rule, your total super balance (TSB) must be under the relevant limit on 30 June of the previous year. Depending on your TSB, your personal contribution limit may be less than $330,000, so it’s a good idea to talk to us before making your contribution.

More super things to think about

If you plan to make tax-effective super contributions through a salary sacrifice arrangement, now is a good time to discuss this with your employer, as the ATO requires an effective arrangement to be documented prior to commencement. Another option if you’re aged 65 and over and plan to sell your home is a downsizer contribution. You can contribute up to $300,000 ($600,000 for a couple) from the proceeds without meeting the work test. And don’t forget making a contribution into your low-income spouse’s super account could score you a tax offset of up to $540. To take advantage of these super tax concessions, ensure your contributions meet all the eligibility rules and are received by your super fund well before June 30.

Get your SMSF shipshape

If you have your own self-managed super fund (SMSF), it’s important to check it’s in good shape for EOFY and your annual audit. Administrative tasks such as updating the fund’s minutes, lodging any transfer balance account reports (TBARs), checking the COVID relief measures (residency, rental, loan repayment and in-house assets), and undertaking the annual market valuation of fund assets should all be started now. It’s also sensible to review your fund’s investment strategy and check whether the fund’s assets remain appropriate.

Know your tax deductions

It’s also worth thinking beyond super, to see what else you can do to reduce tax. If you’ve been working from home due to COVID-19, you can use the shortcut method to claim 80 cents per hour worked for your running expenses. But make sure you have detailed records of hours worked to substantiate your claim. You also need to prepare supporting documents to claim work-related expenses such as car, travel, clothing and self-education. Check whether you qualify for other common expense deductions such as tools, equipment, union fees, the cost of managing your tax affairs, charity donations and income protection premiums.

Review your investment portfolio

After a year of strong investment market performance, now is also a good time to do a thorough analysis of your finances outside super. Review your investment strategy, benchmark your portfolio’s performance and check whether any assets need to be sold or purchased to rebalance the portfolio back into line with your strategy. You might also consider realising any investment losses, as these can be offset against capital gains you made during the year. There’s a lot to think about, so if you would like to discuss EOFY strategies and super contributions, call our office.

2021-22 EOFY tips for business owners

    • Ensure any Super Guarantee and employee salary sacrifice contributions you plan to claim a tax deduction for in 2021-22 are made prior to June 30
    • Consider whether to take advantage of the temporary full expensing regime that allows an immediate 100% write-off of eligible assets purchased and installed in the period 6 October 2020 to 30 June 2022
    • Ensure your quarterly BAS, GST returns and Single Touch Payroll reports are all up-to-date
    • Check whether your enterprise meets the eligibility rules for small business capital gains tax (CGT) concessions if you are contemplating winding up or selling your business soon
    • Consider bringing forward any expenses due early in the new financial year to reduce your taxable income. Small expense amounts under $1,000 can be claimed without triggering the prepayment rules
  • Write off any bad debts so you can claim a tax deduction

2021 Year in Review

Posted on by Rocky Hoffman
There are no prizes for guessing what dominated the economic landscape in 2021. For the second year running, the pandemic was the focus for policy makers, markets, businesses, and individuals alike. The year began with hopes that the rollout of vaccines around the globe would stem the spread of COVID-19 and allow economies to reopen. Instead, most countries were hit by wave after wave of the virus, periodic lockdowns, and ongoing disruption to lives and livelihoods. Yet there were also positives. Australia’s vaccination rate exceeded all expectations while property and share markets soared. Investors who stayed the course enjoyed double digit returns from their superannuation, with the median growth fund tipped to return more than 12 per cent for the year.i
Australia key indices December Share markets (% change) Year to December
2020 2021 2020 2021
Economic growth -2.2% *3.9% Australia All Ordinaries -1.45% 13.56%
RBA cash rate 0.1% 0.1% US S&P500 16.37% 27.0%
Inflation (annual rate) 0.9% ^3.0% Euro Stoxx 50 -5.14% 20.90%
Unemployment 6.6% #4.6% Shanghai Composite 13.87% 4.80%
Consumer confidence 112.00 104.3 Japan Nikkei 225 16.01% 4.91%

*Year to September, ^September quarter # November Sources: RBA, ABS, Westpac Melbourne Institute, Trading Economics

The big picture

If the pandemic has taught us anything, it is to expect the unexpected as new variants of the coronavirus – first Delta and now Omicron – hampered plans to return to a ‘new normal’. This saw governments removing restrictions one minute then reimposing lockdowns and border closures the next. Yet through it all, the global economy picked up steam. Final figures aren’t available yet, but in the year to September the two global powerhouses the US and China grew at an annual rate of 4.9 per cent, while the Australian economy grew by 3.9 per cent. The Australian economy is estimated to have grown by more than 4 per cent in 2021 and is forecast to pick up speed in 2022 to around 5 per cent. This is good news for jobseekers, with unemployment falling to 4.6 per cent ahead of the Christmas rush. But challenges remain. As global demand for goods and services picked up, ongoing shutdowns disrupted manufacturing and supply chains. The result was higher prices and emerging inflation.

Inflation and interest rates

Australia’s inflation rate jumped from less than one per cent to 3 per cent in 2021. This is lower than the US, where inflation hit 6.8 per cent, but it still led to speculation about interest rate hikes. The Reserve Bank insists it won’t lift rates until inflation is sustainably between 2-3 per cent, unemployment is closer to 4 per cent and wages growth near 3 per cent. (Wages were up 2.2 per cent in the year to September.) The Reserve doesn’t expect to meet all these conditions until 2023 at the earliest, but many economists think it could be sooner. Some central banks such as the UK and New Zealand have already lifted rates. And while Australia’s cash rate remains at an historic low of 0.1 per cent, bond yields point to higher rates ahead. Australia’s 10-year government bond yields rose from 0.98 per cent to 1.67 per cent in 2021, while US long bonds finished at 1.51 per cent. Even so, low interest rates were not enough to convince everyone to resume normal life and spend. While consumers remained positive overall, the Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index fell 6.9 per cent in the year to December.

Shares continue to shine

Global sharemarkets made some big gains in 2021 on the back of economic recovery and strong corporate profits. The US market led the way, with the S&P500 index up 27 per cent to finish at near record highs. European stocks also performed well while the Chinese market suffered from the government’s regulatory crackdown and the Evergrande property crisis. In the middle of the pack, the Australian market rose a solid 13.5 per cent in 2021. The picture is even rosier when dividends are added, taking the total return to 17.7 per cent. The best performing sectors were telecommunications, property trusts, consumer discretionary and financials. Only two sectors fell – energy and information technology.ii

Volatile commodity prices

As the global economy geared up, so did demand for raw materials. Commodity prices were generally higher but with some wild swings along the way. Oil prices rose around 53 per cent on supply constraints and increased demand. And although coal is due to be phased out in the long term, thermal coal prices soared 111 per cent and coking coal rose 37 per cent. Australia’s biggest export, iron ore, fell 25 per cent but only after hitting a record high in May. Despite demand for our raw materials and a sound economy, the Aussie dollar fell against the strengthening greenback. After starting the year at US77c it finished at US72.5c, providing a welcome boost for Australian exporters.

Property boom

It won’t have escaped anyone’s notice that Australia’s residential property market had another bumper year, although the pace of growth shows signs of slowing. National home prices rose 22.1 per cent in 2021, according to CoreLogic. When rental income is included the total return from property was 25.7 per cent.iii Regional areas (up 25.9 per cent) outpaced capital cities (up 21.0 per cent), as people fled to the perceived safety and affordability of the country during the pandemic. Even so, prices were up in all major cities, led by Hobart (28.1 per cent), Brisbane (27.4 per cent) and Sydney (25.3 per cent). Melbourne suffered from prolonged lockdowns, up 15.1 per cent. And in news that will please owners and investors but dishearten first time buyers, Sydney became the first city to surpass a median value of $1 million.

Looking ahead

The pandemic is likely to continue to dominate economic developments in 2022. Much will depend on the supply and efficacy of vaccines to protect against Omicron and any future variants of the coronavirus. Financial markets will also keenly watch for signs of inflation and rising interest rate. In Australia, inflation is likely to be constrained while wages growth remains low, and the Reserve Bank keeps rates on hold. The wild card is the looming federal election which must be held by May. Until the outcome is known, uncertainty may weigh on markets, households, and business.

i https://www.chantwest.com.au/resources/remarkable-a-10th-consecutive-positive-year ii https://www.commsec.com.au/content/dam/EN/Campaigns_Native/yearahead/CommSec-Year-In-Review-2022-Report.pdf iii https://www.corelogic.com.au/news/housing-values-end-year-221-higher-pace-gains-continuing-soften-multi-speed-conditions-emerge Unless otherwise stated, figures were sourced from Trading Economics on 31/12/21