Federal Budget 2020 – 21 Analysis

Building a bridge to recovery

In what has been billed as one of the most important budgets since the Great Depression, and the first since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic dragged Australia into its first recession in almost 30 years, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg said the next phase of the journey is to secure Australia’s future. As expected, the focus is on job creation, tax cuts and targeted spending to get the economy over the COVID-19 hump. The Treasurer said this Budget, which was delayed six months due to the pandemic, is “all about helping those who are out of a job get into a job and helping those who are in work, stay in work”.

The big picture

After coming within a whisker of balancing the budget at the end of 2019, the Treasurer revealed the budget deficit is now projected to blow out to $213.7 billion this financial year, or 11 per cent of GDP, the biggest deficit in 75 years. With official interest rates at a record low of 0.25 per cent, the Reserve Bank has little firepower left to stimulate the economy. That puts the onus on Government spending to get the economy moving, fortunately at extremely favourable borrowing rates. And that is just as well, because debt and deficit will be with us well into the decade. The Government forecasts the deficit will fall to $66.9 billion by 2023-24. Net debt is expected to hit $703 billion this financial year, or 36 per cent of GDP, dwarfing the $85.3 billion debt last financial year. Debt is expected to peak at $966 billion, or 44 per cent of GDP, by June 2024. The figures are eye-watering, but the Government is determined to do what it takes to keep Australians in jobs and grow our way out of recession. So, what does the Budget mean for you, your family and your community?

It’s all about jobs

With young people bearing the brunt of COVID-related job losses, the Government is pulling out all stops to get young people into jobs. Youth unemployment currently stands at 14.3 per cent, more than twice the overall jobless rate of 6.8 per cent. As we transition away from the JobKeeper and JobSeeker subsidies, the Government announced more than $6 billion in new spending which it estimates will help create 450,000 jobs for young people. “Having a job means more than earning an income,” Mr Frydenberg said. Measures include:
    • A new JobMaker program worth $4 billion by 2022-23, under which employers who fill new jobs with young workers who are unemployed or studying will receive a hiring credit of up to $10,400 over the next year. Employers who hire someone under 29 will receive $200 a week, and $100 a week for those aged 30-35. New employees must work at least 20 hours a week to be eligible.
 
  • A $1.2 billion program to pay half the salary of up to 100,000 new apprentices and trainees taken on by businesses.
In recognition that the pandemic has had a disproportionate impact on women’s employment, the Budget includes the promised “Women’s economic security statement” but the size of the support package may disappoint some. Just over $240 million has been allocated to “create more opportunities and choices for women” in science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) as well as male-dominated industries and business.

Housing and infrastructure

As part of its job creation strategy, the government also announced $14 billion in new and accelerated infrastructure projects since the onset of COVID. The projects will be in all states and territories and include major road and rail projects, smaller shovel-ready road safety projects, as well as new water infrastructure such as dams, weirs and pipelines. The construction industry will also be supported by the first home loan deposit scheme being extended to an extra 10,000 new or newly built homes in 2020-21. This scheme allows first home owners to buy with a deposit as low as 5 per cent and the Government will guaranteeing up to 15 per cent.

Personal tax cuts

As widely tipped, the government will follow up last year’s tax cut by bringing forward stage two of its planned tax cuts and back date them to July 1 this year to give mostly low and middle-income taxpayers an immediate boost. As the table below shows, the upper income threshold for the 19 per cent marginal tax rate will increase from $37,000 a year to $45,000 a year. The upper threshold for the 32.5 per cent tax bracket will increase from $90,000 to $120,000. As a result, more than 11 million Australians will save between $87 and $2,745 this financial year. Couples will save up to $5,490.
Marginal tax rate* Previous taxable income thresholds New taxable income thresholds
0% $0-$18,200 $0-$18,200
19% $18,201-$37,000 $18,201-$45,000
32.5% $37,001-$90,000 $45,001-$120,000
37% $90,001-$180,000 $120,001-$180,000
45% More than $180,000 More than $180,000
Low income tax offset (LITO) Up to $445 Up to $700
Low & middle income tax offset (LMITO) Up to $1,080 Up to $1,080**

*Does not include Medicare Levy of 2% **LMITO will only be available until the end of the 2020-21 income year.

You don’t need to do anything to receive the tax cuts. The Australian Taxation Office (ATO) will automatically adjust the tax tables it applies to businesses and simply take less. It will also account for three months of taxes already paid from 1 July this year so workers can catch up on missed savings.

Business tax relief

In another move that will help protect jobs in the hard-hit small business sector, business owners will also get tax relief through loss carry back provisions for struggling firms. This will allow them to claim back a rebate on tax they have previously paid until they get back on their feet. Businesses with turnover of up to $5 billion a year will be able to write off the full value of any depreciable asset they buy before June 2022.

Cash boost for retirees

Around 2.5 million pensioners will get extra help to make up for the traditional September rise in the Age Pension not going ahead this year. However, self-funded retirees may feel they have been left out. Age pensioners and as well as people on the disability support pension, Veterans pension, Commonwealth Seniors Health Card holders and recipients of Family Tax Benefit will receive two payments of $250 from December and from March. This is in addition to two previous payments of $750 earlier this year.

Health and aged care

After the terrible toll the pandemic has waged on aged care residents and the elderly, the Government will add 23,000 additional Home Care packages to allow senior Australians to remain in their home for as long as possible. Funding for mental health and suicide prevention will also be increased by $5.7 billion this year, with a doubling of Medicare-funded places for psychological services.

Super funds on notice

Underperforming super funds are to be named and shamed with a new comparison tool called Your Super. This will allow super members to compare fees and returns. All funds will be required to undergo an annual performance test from 2021 and underperforming funds will be banned from taking on new members unless they do better.

Looking ahead

As the underlying Budget assumptions are based on finding a coronavirus vaccine sometime next year, Government projections for economic growth, jobs and debt are necessarily best estimates only. Only time will tell if Budget spending and other incentives will be enough to encourage business to invest and employ, and to prevent the economy dipping further as JobKeeper and JobSeeker temporary support payments are wound back. Another test will be whether the Budget initiatives help those most affected by the recession, notably young people and women. The Government has said it is prepared to consider more spending to get the economy out of recession. The Treasurer will have another opportunity to fine tune his economic strategy fairly soon, with the next federal budget due in just seven months, in May 2021. If you have any questions about any of the Budget measures and how they might impact your finances, don’t hesitate to contact us.

Information in this article has been sourced from the Budget Speech 2020-21 and Federal Budget support documents. It is important to note that the policies outlined in this publication are yet to be passed as legislation and therefore may be subject to change.

Timing the Economic Reboot

After successfully navigating our initial response to the COVID-19 (coronavirus) health crisis, backed up with $285 billion in government support to individuals and businesses to keep the economy ticking over, thoughts are turning to how to get the economy back on its feet.  It’s a huge task, but Australia is better placed than most countries. Pre-pandemic, our Federal Budget was close to balanced and on track to be in surplus this financial year. Economic growth was chugging along at around 2 per cent. In his Statement on the Economy on May 12, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg gave an insight into the extent of the challenge ahead. On what would have been Budget day (the annual Budget has been postponed until October), he announced that the underlying cash deficit was $22 billion to the end of March, almost $10 billion higher than forecast just six months ago. And that was before the $285 billion in support payments began to flow into the economy.

Global comparison

Economic forecasts are difficult at the best of times, but especially now when so much hinges on how quickly and safely we and the rest of the world can kick start our economies. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is forecasting the world economy to shrink by 3 per cent this year. To put this in perspective, even during the GFC the contraction was only 0.1 per cent in 2009. In Australia, the government forecasts growth will fall by 10 per cent in the June quarter, our biggest fall on record. If we manage a gradual economic reboot, with most activity back to normal by the September quarter, the Reserve Bank forecasts a fall in growth of 6 per cent this year before rebounding by 7 per cent in the year to June 2021.i Even if we pull off this relatively fast return to growth, it will take much longer to repair the budget.

Budget repair

Economists have recently reduced their forecasts for the budget deficit after the JobKeeper wage subsidy program came in $60 billion under budget. However, they are still predicting our debt and deficits will reach levels not seen since World War II. For example, Westpac chief economist, Bill Evans forecasts a budget deficit of $80 billion this year and $170 billion next year. AMP’s Dr Shane Oliver also expects the deficit to peak at $170 billion next financial year.ii

Australian Federal budget deficit

 

Source: AMP

While polling shows most Australians approve of the way the federal and state governments have handled the crisis, many are beginning to wonder how we as a nation are going to pay for it. The key to recovery will be getting Australians back to work; for those who have had their hours cut to return to full-time work, and those who have lost jobs to find work.

It’s all about jobs

The unemployment rate is forecast to double to 10 per cent, or 1.4 million people, in the June quarter with total hours worked falling 20 per cent After the June 2020 peak, the Reserve Bank expects a gradual fall in the annual unemployment rate to around 6.5 per cent by June 2022. This is still above pre-pandemic levels of around 5.2 per cent.i With the government announcing the easing of restrictions on movement in three stages by July, Treasury estimates 850,000 people would be able to return to work. More than half of these workers would be in three sectors – accommodation and food; arts and recreation; and transport, postal and warehousing. Treasury also estimates that this easing of restrictions will increase economic growth by $9.4 billion a month. However, this outcome depends on us following the health advice. The cost of re-imposing restrictions could come at a loss of more than $4 billion a week to the economy. The stakes are highest for our two most populous states. The cost of re-imposing restrictions could amount to $1.4 billion a week in NSW and $1 billion a week in Victoria. This provides an insight into why those states have moved more cautiously than others in reopening some sectors of their economies.

The growth strategy

Looking ahead, Treasurer Frydenberg said the government’s focus will be on ‘’practical solutions”, citing existing policies such as reskilling and upskilling the workforce, maintaining our infrastructure pipeline, cutting red tape and tax and industrial relations reform. The Treasurer also made it clear he expects the private sector to lead job creation, not government. If the past few months are anything to go by, Australians have risen to the challenge. From working from home and staying connected via Zoom, to restaurants pivoting from dine-in to takeaway and manufacturers switching to production of ventilators and hand sanitiser, individuals and businesses have been quick to adapt and innovate. This is likely to be one of the positive legacies of the pandemic and should help our economic recovery in the years to come. If you would like to discuss your finances and how to make the most of the recovery, give us a call. 

https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2020/may/economic-outlook.html

ii https://www.amp.com.au/insights/grow-my-wealth/the-coming-surge-in-australias-budget-deficit-and-public-debt Unless otherwise stated, figures have been sourced from Treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s “The economic impact of the crisis” statement https://ministers.treasury.gov.au/ministers/josh-frydenberg-2018/speeches/ministerial-statement-economy-parliament-house-canberra